It was a bit contra to the mood to return to get the employment numbers, and learn that unemployment was now 9.8% after the mostly upbeat moods in Chicago, but I don’t think any of us found that a surprise. I agree with the general sense that the economy is rebounding, and I’m pretty sure stats will prove positive GDP growth returned in the September/October timeframe. Employment will lag, as it almost always does in recessions. We lost 263,000 jobs in September, which was worse than August, but the month to month variations are less important to watch than the overall trend.
Not to sound like an economist, but this stuff is important to our industry, and even more important to people currently out of work. I read a research report by Ed Weller (research analyst at ThinkEquity LLC) this morning and he summed it up well: “the slowing pace of job losses for the total economy seems pretty clear and it seems especially clear for the private sector”. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes lots of information every month, and if you look at the monthly job loss data it is clear that the trend has serious momentum- grouping pairs of months. Looking at private sector employment, this is what you get if you look back through 2009:
2-month Period Private Sector Jobs Lost
Feb/Mar 1,336,000
Apr/May 884,000
Jun/Jul 637,000
Aug/Sep 392,000
So it appears we are getting somewhere. The rate of decline has clearly eased, and I’m encouraged by the prospect of positive numbers in a quarter or two. The Boy Scout motto comes to mind: “Be Prepared”.