(February 04, 2008) The series so far:
In my lifetime, the American population has doubled twice. In my children's lifetime, it has doubled once. In their children's life, it will start declining.
The older of us are used to tremendous growth rates in population, economics, business development and real estate prices. It was a 75 year bubble that will change in just the same way that other economic factors are changing.
What goes up must come down. We are lucky to be living at the fast accelerating uppest up in the history of our species. As we reach the apogee (crest) of the growth curve, all of the things that assumed high velocity change are subject to reconsideration. The way that work is organized, who does it and why are critical pieces of the puzzle. Where new workers (or replacement workers for that matter) come from is an essential concern in the coming decades.
Rapid growth in population and the workforce allowed for some very sloppy assumptions. In the 1990s and early 21st Century, it was common practice to routinely waste the time of hundreds of candidates while trying to fill a single job. Companies, with little concern for the consequences to their brand (ability to attract new workers), treated potential employees as if they were a free commodity with no feelings or value.
The core problem was the belief that a nearly infinite surplus of workers existed to fill a particular job. There were moments (when the boomers left college) when the assumption was accurate. It was an aberration, not a permanent face on the economy.
Today, the free labor supply basically equals the number of open jobs. Growth is slowing as we inch our way to the top of the curve. It always does that.
A revision in thinking is required.
John Sumser. - © 2008 Two Color Hat, Inc. Santa Rosa, CA
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